Here's why we can win (and how we can get there...)

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David Hughes
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Here's why we can win (and how we can get there...)

I'm up to about hundred.....these aren't people I've met or known before. They range across demographic groups. Spending and taxes are the number 1 and 2 issue on the minds of voters this year. Those are also the 2 issues Baldacci doesn't want to talk about. I wonder why? :roll:

gopcollegestudent
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Lewiston is a place that Baldacci needs to do well in his support there is fading fast...

Mike Travers
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I have a friend who has been a Democrat activist for years, actually run campaigns, a State worker with the DHHS. He announced in Duke's barbershop recently that he was voting for Woodcock. They were stunned. One of them offered to take him to dinner. The average Mainer is not the average Maine [b]voter[/b]. I think you'll see a lot of average Mainers coming out to vote this time. They're [b]not[/b] liberal.

1Maine1lostcause
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If a pollster would ask the average maine voter if they are more conservative or less conservative than Gov. Baldaccci, we would all wonder how he even got into office.

Mainelion
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[quote="Mary1 wrote:"]Talking to a few people from one demographic isn't an accurate reading. Nor are anyone's "well all my friends/coworkers are saying" claims.[/quote]

But the pronouncements of Mary1 based on no outside information are quite accurate?

Jim Cyr
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Mary, you sound like you've not been around...

[quote="Mary1"][quote="Mainelion"]I know this is a very small sample, but in my office there are 3 staunch Democrats that have stated they'll be voting for Woodcock. They don't like his stand on social issues, but they know that it's lights out for Maine if Baldacci gets back in. They all voted for Baldacci in the last election and are sorry they did.[/quote]

Do you know why they don't like the green or independant candidates?

I find it hard to believe they are staunch democrats if they believe Woodcck's economic policies will be best.

I'd think if they are staunch democrats and unhappy with Baldacci that they'd vote for Merrill.[/quote]

I'm old enough, you can say, and I've been around Maine politics "a while" now. But what makes me realize that this year is an earthquake in its early rumblings are the hundreds of phone calls I've had with Mainers of all demographics, as part of my work in public opinion polling. There's a very real, palpable, visceral disgust with Baldacci this year, the likes of which I have not seen. It's real, and it's there. And you are simply not in touch with it, I can tell you. People have really had it.....and that includes TONS of Baldacci voters who I have talked to intimately (they voted for him like I did, thinking he was competent and moderate. On both counts, they have been sorely disappointed).

Jim Cyr
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let the revisionism begin!!

[quote="Mary1"][quote="gopcollegestudent"]Mary1- Are you part of the crowd that said that Chandler Woodcock could not win the primary?

I know many dems as well in my old area who are voting for Woodcock...

Mainstream Main is not liberal its moderate and Baldacci is far from moderate..[/quote]

Which crowd claimed Woodcock couldn't win the primary? As far as I recall, polls, even early on, showed that the primary candidates were all pretty much neck and neck. I didn't have a clue who would come out on top - it depended on which demographic hit the polls the hardest.

I would say main stream Maine is ficscally moderate, socially liberal.[/quote]

Mary, NOBODY had even HEARD of Woodcock in December and January, and precious few gave him any chance of beating Mills or Emery. (Or whoever else was "bound to get into the Republican race any day now"). You deny the "incredibleness" aspect of the Woodcock story to date.........a true grassroots, coming out of nowhere, underdog campaign which has him winning the support of tens of thousands every month. You seem old enough that you MUST recognize the dynamic.....Mainers (and people in general) LOVE this kind of story. Does it remind you of any ex-candidate in particular? It should. It should remind you of the most popular Maine governor of the last 50 years, Jim Longley. Only a foolish person would deny the many similarities in the stories.

Dan Billings
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Here's why we can win (and how we can get there...)

There were actually no polls on the primary race until a few weeks before the primary. The only polls were polls that matched the three candidates up against Baldacci.

A number of people here at AMG gave Woodcock a good chance of winning the primary. However, there is no doubt that he was the least known of the three candidates and was generally considered the least likely of the three candidates to win. Of course, the general consensus on such things is often wrong. I always thought Woodcock would win the primary. I also think he will win the general election.

David Hughes
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I agree with Dan. At this stage in the race it is Woodcock's race to lose.

gopcollegestudent
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David-

I think you are right...

As I see it the Woodcock campigian is doing very well, come out with new things one step at a time but not too fast.

trader111
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gop,

[quote]Lewiston is a place that Baldacci needs to do well in his support there is fading fast...[/quote]

Why do you think this? Id love for it to be true.

gopcollegestudent
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From people I speak with in that area..

Example..
My father is a long time Dem lives in Lewiston... he can't stand Baldacci..He'll be voting for Woodcock..

I can count at least 20 folks in Lewiston area that voted in the Dem primary that are swinging over to vote for Woodcock..

Mike Travers
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Here's why we can win (and how we can get there...)

I believe all the ingredients are there for a Woodcock win [b]but[/b] a lot will depend on the "October Surprise". I don't know what that will be, but I'm sure there's a plan for one. The Dems know they're in danger of losing if they don't do something extraordinary, and I'm positive they've planned ahead. How about it? Any guesses on what the October Surprise will be? Put on your thinking caps. You could go down in history as the person who saved the State of Maine from ruin.

gopcollegestudent
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Here's why we can win (and how we can get there...)

October Surprise
-----------

Brookings- Our economy is the best in the Country roll

Earl Nickerson . Jr
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[quote="Mike Travers"]I believe all the ingredients are there for a Woodcock win [b]but[/b] a lot will depend on the "October Surprise". I don't know what that will be, but I'm sure there's a plan for one. The Dems know they're in danger of losing if they don't do something extraordinary, and I'm positive they've planned ahead. How about it? Any guesses on what the October Surprise will be? Put on your thinking caps. You could go down in history as the person who saved the State of Maine from ruin.[/quote]

Mike , I'd be inclined to agree with you on the Oct. Surprise thing if it weren't for the fact that the Dems are coming undone right before our eyes. Not something I'd expect to see if they had an ace up their sleeve.As far as the talk around the water cooler,so to speak, Baldi is in DEEP trouble. Both my parents (life long Dems) will vote for Woodcock but not all the people I've talked to are planning to vote for Woodcock, a few dems are considering Merrill. Either way Woodcock WINS. :D

Kevin Lamoreau
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BUMP

I was doing a google search on one AMG member and came across this thread, and was surprised there hadn't been any posts on it since the election (on another political forum I frequent, there would have been a bump soon after the election). Scott Fish may not be happy with me starting a trend of bumping old threads (and I don't intend to bump any more, unless something really relevent came up that prompted me to do it), but I thought it would be neat to see how people respond when reading some of their earlier posts.

It's pretty clear that there was, as Mike Travers worried about, an "October surprise" (did the story of Woodcock and his past tax liens break in October?). Some speculated on a poor showing by Baldacci in Lewiston. Baldacci did get shlacked in the Lewiston-Auburn suburbs (even losing ancestrally Democratic Lisbon - I don't think Sabattus or at least Turner, Leeds and Wales, say were ever Democratic strongholds) and only won Auburn by 2% (with only 33.6% of the vote), but carried Lewiston by 15% (42.1% to 27.0%). That's not very good for a Democrat in Lewiston, but it seems Democrats no longer need to win by the margins they used to take for granted there in order to win statewide elections. People still talk about Mainers being fed up and the next election being the one when they will unleash it all, but will a build-up of tension be enough or will it take something really new - and what is that something?

Mainelion
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The only thing that will change the political landscape in Maine is a complete economic collapse of government. There are too many pigs at the government trough.

Jim Corr
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It's all about the message! We allow the Dem-Socialists and their MSM allies to define our Conservative candidates, instead of us defining them. Here's what I know in my House District that resonates across the political spectrum:
- taxes are too high
- spending is too high
- government is inefficient and wasteful
- citizens want the rule of law applied to immigration, ie ENFORCE THE LAWS, and Maine should not be a sanctuary state
- welfare is OUT OF CONTROL
- simple healthcare policy that everyone can understand and afford

I'm sure there are more that could be added to the list, but my point is that we should have a PLAN to present to the people on how we are going to deal with these issues. We've been out of power long enough that someone should have been able to pen a plan that will address the major areas of concern for the people. The people shouldn't have to wait for a plan to be developed once we take office. The Republican platform should provide some detail on how we are going to turn this sinking ship around.

Bob Stone
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Check with Olympia on the platform.

Jim Corr
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Here's why we can win (and how we can get there...)

The Republican Party of Maine is out of touch, that's why I have re-registered as an Independent. If Olympia Snowe is running the show then we are in more trouble than we know!

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